5:14 AM CT — position closed in the overnight session. TSLL traded down to $12.43/$12.44 overnight (TSLA ~$396.70, drifting below $400 pre-market), breaching the $12.71 breakeven stop — which is a regular-hours-only order and therefore DEAD until 8:30. Harold flagged it live; the written plan's floor ("worst case from here is breakeven on the rest") was leaking through the stop's overnight blind spot. Executed the plan manually: cancelled the dead stop → sold 3 TSLL @ limit $12.41 in the all-day session → filled $12.44 in 2 seconds (price improvement; overnight book was $12.43 × 1900 / $12.44 × 1100).

• Leg-b result: -$0.81 (3 × $12.71 → $12.44). Full TSLA-swing trade: leg-a +$2.37, leg-b -$0.81 = net +$1.56. Not the $14.00 target — but the floor held within 27 cents/share of a level no resting order could defend.
• No fresh catalyst found pre-open (verified via live search): this is continued fade of delivery-week chop — TSLA -4.0% Tuesday ($419.77 → $402.90), continuing lower overnight. Tuesday's close was $402.90, ABOVE the $400 close-exit line, so holding through Tuesday was per plan.
• Lesson (already being fixed): the once-daily 5:17 PM sentry was the right idea with the wrong cadence — a single evening check can't defend a stop level breached at 4 AM. The overnight watcher is being rebuilt on the same engine as the day system: hourly checks whenever positions are held, self-escalating to 30/15 min near trigger levels.
• Account: flat, ~$501.56 cash (+0.3% since inception). YTD realized +$1.56 → tax reserve $0.47. Cash unsettled from tonight's sale until T+1 — morning session must respect settled-cash limits before re-entering.
• Morning session note: today's section already exists (this entry) — run the FULL first-of-day procedure anyway (briefing, scans, stable review). TSLA now below $400: the dip-reversal thesis is NOT dead but needs a fresh base — no knife-catching at the open; require stabilization same as Monday's playbook.

First regular session (8:32 CT) — flat, no trade.

Account value: $501.56 (all cash; ~$464.24 settled, ~$37 still settling from the overnight TSLL sale — T+1) · Since inception: +0.3% · tax reserve $0.47

Positions: none. Recon clean — 0 positions, 0 open orders, risk-levels.json {}. Overnight exit reconciled (3 TSLL sold @ $12.44).

Actions: None — cash is the position today. The full first-of-day pass and why I'm standing down:

• TSLA $397.60 (-1.3% vs $402.90): the delivery-week fade continues *below* $400 with no base. The dip-reversal plan requires stabilization (a hold/reclaim above ~$392–400), which I have not seen — one red session below $400 is a falling knife, not a base. No armed trigger today; I want to see TSLA *build* a base over more than one session before re-entering. Watching, not buying.
• FOMC June minutes land 1pm CT (Warsh's first, publicly split committee). That is a known event-risk this afternoon — opening a directional swing into it is betting on the minutes, not taking a setup. A hawkish read could crack the risk-on tape further; a dovish one could hand TSLA its base. Either way the disciplined move is to let it print first.
• IREN $41.19 (+3.4%): another countertrend pop inside the -43% five-week downtrend; still no multi-day base above ~$40. Shadow review 7/13 will grade the 7/06 pass. No change — watch.
• Gainers scan: microcap junk (VTAK, EDBL, IOTR…) plus BABA +8.2% to $106 and KC +12% on a China-tech/AI bid (echoes the briefing's heavy China-AI headline flow). Real move, but already extended and outside my edge — no chase.
• Cash reality: only ~$464 is settled anyway (overnight sale settles T+1), so re-entering a full-size swing today would flirt with a good-faith violation. Another reason patience is free.
• Cadence stays 60: flat account, nothing to defend between checks, no armed trigger. I'll be attentive around the 1pm CT minutes but there's no position for a tighter cadence to protect.

Intraday:

• 9:32 CT — TSLA $395.04 (-1.95% vs $402.90), *lower* than the 8:32 read ($397.60) and still no base under $400; tape mildly risk-off (SPY -0.6%, QQQ -0.3%). Flat, no orders — recon clean. This confirms the stand-down: the dip-reversal needs a hold/reclaim of ~$392–400 over more than one session, and TSLA is drifting the wrong way into the 1pm CT FOMC minutes. No action; cadence stays 60.
• 10:32 CT — TSLA $391.96 (-2.7% vs $402.90), lower again vs the 9:32 read ($395.04) and now testing the bottom of the ~$392 base zone; tape has softened to SPY -1.0%/QQQ -1.0%. Flat, recon clean (0 positions, 0 orders, risk-levels {}). No action — the dip-reversal stays disarmed until TSLA can *hold* rather than lose $392, and I'm not opening anything into the 1pm CT minutes. If $392 fails into the print, the next reference is $380 (thesis-dead line). Watching, not buying; cadence stays 60.
• 11:32 CT — TSLA $394.03 (-2.2% vs $402.90), a small bounce off the 10:32 low ($391.96) so $392 held on this test; tape firmed slightly (SPY -0.6%, QQQ -0.3%). Still below $400 and un-based — one intraday bounce off support is not the multi-session base the dip-reversal needs, and the 1pm CT minutes are ~90 min out. Flat, recon clean (0 positions, 0 orders). No action; cadence stays 60 — nothing to defend, and the FOMC print is the next real information, not a price level.
• 12:32 CT — TSLA $395.00 (-2.0% vs $402.90), holding the ~$394–395 area above the $392 test; tape quiet/mixed (SPY -0.25%, QQQ +0.2%). FOMC June minutes land in ~28 min (1pm CT). Flat, recon clean (0 positions, 0 orders, risk-levels {}). No action and no cadence change — I hold nothing for a tighter cadence to defend, and opening into the print would be betting on the minutes, not taking a setup. The 60-min cadence lands the next check ~13:32, after the print, which is the right time to read TSLA's reaction and whether it can start building the base the dip-reversal needs. Watching, not buying.
• 13:32 CT — post-FOMC: TSLA $391.37 (-2.9% vs $402.90), rolled over from the 12:32 read ($395.00) and broke back below the $392 base on the minutes; SPY -0.4% (744.67). The minutes read hawkish enough to crack the level — the exact risk-off scenario the standing note flagged, and vindication for not opening into the print. Flat, recon clean (0 positions, 0 orders, risk-levels {}). No action: TSLA is making a fresh intraday low, not building the base the dip-reversal needs — chasing a knife lower after a -3% day is not a defined setup, and we can't short. Next reference below is $380 (thesis-dead line). Cadence stays 60 — nothing to defend, and the base-build I'm waiting for is a multi-session event, not something the next hour decides.

Watching:

• TSLA base watch — need a hold/reclaim of ~$392–400 over more than one session before the dip-reversal re-arms; earnings Jul 22 is the catalyst it's mean-reverting toward. Thesis dead only on a decisive breakdown of $380.
• FOMC minutes 1pm CT — the afternoon's tell for the whole risk-on tape.
• Earnings flow: LEVI tonight (pm), PEP Thu am, DAL Fri am (the only sketched play, default no-trade). Big banks (JPM/WFC/GS/C/BAC) start next Tue 7/14.
• IREN $41 — base above ~$40 for multiple days = interesting again; shadow review 7/13.

Notes: First fully-flat first-of-day session. The overnight exit did its job (net +$1.56 on the swing); now the account is back to cash with slots 4/4 free. No forced trades — with FOMC minutes at 1pm and TSLA still un-based, the A-setup is the one I don't take today.

14:32 CT — EOD snapshot (flat day, no trade).

Account value: $501.56 (all cash; ~$464.24 settled buying power, remainder still settling T+1 from the overnight TSLL sale) · Since inception: +0.3% · YTD realized +$1.56 → tax reserve $0.47

Positions: none. Recon clean all day — 0 positions, 0 open orders, risk-levels.json {}. No overnight risk to carry; the 5:17 PM sentry does not run with an empty book.

Close reads: TSLA $392.99 (-2.5% vs $402.90) — broke below the $392 base on the hawkish FOMC minutes (13:00 CT), made a fresh intraday low ~$391, then bounced to retest $393 into the close. Still below $400 and un-based; the dip-reversal stays disarmed. SPY $745.10 (-0.35%) — the tape absorbed the minutes without cracking, so this is a TSLA-specific delivery-week fade, not a market-wide risk-off. IREN $42.74 (+7.3%) — a third countertrend up-day, but still inside the -43% five-week downtrend with no multi-day base above ~$40; shadow review 7/13 grades the 7/06 pass. LEVI reports tonight (pm); no position, no exposure.

Decision quality: the standout call today was not opening into the 1pm minutes — the hawkish read cracked $392 exactly as the standing note flagged. Staying flat with slots 4/4 open and only ~$464 settled cash was correct on both edges (no setup + good-faith constraint). Beating the tape today meant not losing to it: SPY -0.35%, account flat.

Watchlist for tomorrow (Thu 7/9):

• TSLA base watch — need a hold/reclaim of ~$392–400 over more than one session before the dip-reversal re-arms; Jul 22 earnings is the catalyst it mean-reverts toward. Thesis dead only on a decisive $380 breakdown. A green day that reclaims $400 is the first re-arm signal; a lower low toward $380 keeps it disarmed.
• PEP earnings Thu am, DAL Fri am — DAL is the only sketched play and the default there is still no-trade. Big banks (JPM/WFC/GS/C/BAC) start Tue 7/14.
• IREN $42.74 — base above ~$40 for multiple days = interesting again; shadow review 7/13.
• Cash fully settles Thu, restoring full ~$500 buying power for a clean full-size swing if a setup arms.
• Cadence: stays 60, resets to 60 tomorrow — flat book, nothing to defend overnight.

Account value: $505.61 (cash $464.24, positions $41.37) · Since inception: +1.1% (EOD snapshot 14:32 CT)

Positions: TSLL 3 @ $12.71 (breakeven stop $12.71 GTC resting; target $14.00 ≈ TSLA $425, or exit on TSLA close < $400)

Actions (open, 8:30–8:45 CT):

• IREN — PASSED, and a research correction. Sunday's note framed IREN as momentum-near-highs. The daily chart says otherwise: ~$68 (May 27) → $38.82 (Jul 2), about -43% in five weeks with nine straight red days, driven by idiosyncratic governance concerns (big co-CEO stock grants, an expensive NBA sponsorship). This morning it gapped +10% to $42.81 on sector news (TeraWulf soared after Anthropic leased its Kentucky data center). A +10% gap inside a downtrend is a countertrend bounce, not a breakout — recent highs are $25 higher. Passing; logged to shadow book (review 7/13). Lesson: verify the chart before trusting a research summary — even my own. IREN stays in the stable as a watch name; a multi-day base above ~$40 would make it interesting again.
• TSLA dip-reversal — entry armed, not fired. TSLA opened ~$395.74 (+0.6%), inside the plan's $395–400 reclaim zone and above Thursday's $389.30 low, with a risk-on tape (QQQ +1.2%). But minutes after a gap open is not "stabilization," and the plan explicitly forbade buying Monday's open blind. Cadence escalated to 15 min. Trigger for next session: TSLA holding ≥ ~$392 (gap held) → buy 6 TSLL at market (~$75, 15% of account = ~30% effective TSLA exposure), stop-loss GTC at $11.45 (-8%), target TSLA $415–425 pre-earnings (Jul 22). If TSLA fades below $390, stand down and reassess at the $389 support.
• Vehicle note (why TSLL, not TSLA shares): a whole TSLA share is 79% of the account (over the 40% cap), and fractional shares can't carry a resting stop (Robinhood allows fractional only on plain market orders) — which would break the no-mental-stops rule. TSLL whole shares at half size give the same effective exposure WITH a broker-side stop. This is exactly the "leveraged vehicle for short directional swings" case in the mandate.

Intraday:

• 8:32 CT — cadence 60→15: entry day for planned TSLA/TSLL swing, watching the opening range.
• 8:48 CT — TRIGGER FIRED, first trade of the account's life. TSLA $399.81, holding well above the $392 trigger and sitting at the top of the $395–400 reclaim zone an hour into the session; QQQ +1.3%, risk-on tape confirmed. Bought 6 TSLL @ $12.7099 ($76.26, ~15% of account ≈ 30% effective TSLA exposure) via marketable limit $12.74 — filled instantly. Stop-market GTC 6 @ $11.69 (-8% from fill) placed and resting broker-side immediately after. Target: TSLA $415–425 into the Jul 22 earnings catalyst (TSLL roughly $13.40–14.00); thesis broken on a TSLA close below $380 regardless of the stop. Honest note on entry price: the plan sketched ~$12.45 entry with an $11.45 stop; waiting an hour for confirmation cost ~2% of entry price. That's the price of not buying a gap blind, and I'd pay it again — the stop was recomputed to -8% from the actual fill, so risk-per-trade is unchanged (~$6.12 max loss).
• Cadence stays 15: entry day, want the next few sessions to confirm the gap doesn't fade.
• 9:02 CT — check-in: TSLA $403.06 (+2.4%), holding above $400 — the reclaim has extended, gap-fade risk largely off the table. TSLL $12.90, position +1.5% from $12.7099 entry; stop-market 6 @ $11.69 GTC confirmed resting broker-side. No action. Cadence 15→30: entry confirmation was the reason for 15 and it has resolved; 30 keeps entry-day watch without burning tokens.
• 10:02 CT — TSLA $409.00 (+4.0%), TSLL $13.28, position +4.5% (+$3.43). The reclaim has blown through $405 resistance; QQQ +1.7%. TSLL is a dime below the target zone's low end ($13.40 ≈ TSLA $415) on DAY ONE of a planned multi-week swing — decision brewing: sell into first touch of the zone, or hold for the upper half given momentum this strong. No resting limit possible (the stop holds all 6 shares; no OCO on Robinhood), so the target is managed by session. Stop stays at $11.69 — raising to breakeven would put it inside normal 2x intraday noise and turn a swing into a scalp. Cadence 30→15: position near target.
• 10:17 CT — TSLL $13.30 (+4.6%), TSLA $409.38; zone ($13.40+) still not touched, QQQ +1.4% risk-on. No action, but the 10:02 "sell first touch vs hold" question is now RESOLVED into a mechanical playbook so future sessions execute instead of deliberating: (a) TSLL ≥ $13.40 → sell 3 (half) at market, then cancel the 6-share stop and re-place it as 3 @ $12.71 (breakeven on the rest); (b) remaining 3 target $14.00 (TSLA ~$425) or exit on TSLA close < $400; (c) if the zone is never touched and TSLL falls back below $12.90 (round-trip of today's move), exit all 6 — a +4% day-one gain that fully evaporates means the reclaim failed. Reasoning: day-one momentum this strong argues against selling the whole position at the zone's low end, but banking half pays for the trade and makes the rest a free ride into the Jul 22 catalyst. Cadence stays 15.
• 10:32 CT — ZONE PLAYBOOK EXECUTED (leg a). TSLL touched $13.505 ≥ the $13.40 trigger (TSLA $412.45, +4.8%). Sold 3 of 6 @ $13.501 via marketable limit ($40.50 in; +$2.37 realized, +6.2% on the half). Sequence: cancelled the 6-share stop → sold 3 → re-placed stop as 3 @ $12.71 GTC (breakeven) — all three legs verified at the broker; the position was unprotected for ~25 seconds, unavoidable without OCO support. Remaining 3 shares are now a free ride: worst case from here is breakeven on the rest, trade P&L floor ≈ +$2.37. Target on the rest: $14.00 (TSLA ~$425) or exit on TSLA close < $400. Tax reserve: 30% × $2.37 = $0.71 set aside. First realized gain of the account's life — small, but the process worked exactly as written at 10:17. Cadence 15→30: the near-target trigger resolved; breakeven stop rests broker-side, rest is patience.
• 11:02 CT — check-in: TSLA $414.56 (+5.4%), at the doorstep of the $415–425 target zone; TSLL $13.63, remaining 3 shares +7.2% (+$2.76 unrealized). Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting. No action — the rest rides to TSLL $14.00 (TSLA ~$425) or exits on a TSLA close < $400, per the 10:17 playbook. Cadence stays 30: next trigger ($14.00) is still ~2.7% away.
• 11:32 CT — TSLA $416.21 (+5.8%) has entered the $415–425 target zone; TSLL $13.73, remaining 3 shares +8.0% (+$3.06 unrealized). Breakeven stop verified resting. No action per playbook — leg (b) trigger is TSLL $14.00, ~2% away. Cadence stays 30.
• 12:02 CT — TSLA $418.36 (+6.3%), mid target zone; TSLL $13.86, remaining 3 shares +9.0% (+$3.45 unrealized). Breakeven stop verified resting. Leg (b) trigger ($14.00) is now ~1% away — cadence 30→15 so the touch isn't missed between sessions. No action otherwise.
• 12:32 CT — the $14.00 touch didn't come: TSLL's high since noon was $13.94 (verified on 5-min bars), now pulled back to $13.70; TSLA $415.76 (+5.7%), still inside the target zone. Remaining 3 shares +7.8% (+$2.97 unrealized), breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting. No action — playbook unchanged (sell at $14.00, or exit on TSLA close < $400; worst case is breakeven on the rest). Cadence 15→30: the trigger is back to ~2.2% away and momentum has cooled; 15-min watch no longer earns its cost.
• 13:32 CT — TSLA $417.25 (+6.0%), holding mid target zone; TSLL dipped to ~$13.60 mid-hour, now $13.79 — remaining 3 shares +8.5% (+$3.24 unrealized). $14.00 leg-b trigger not touched (verified high $13.81 since 12:30). Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting. No action; cadence stays 30 (next session ~14:02, EOD session after 14:30).
• 14:32 CT (EOD session) — TSLA $417.29 (+6.1%), closing mid target zone; TSLL $13.79, afternoon high $13.86 (verified on 5-min bars) — the $14.00 leg-b trigger never came. Remaining 3 shares carry overnight at +8.5% (+$3.24 unrealized) with the breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting broker-side, so the trade's floor stays ≈ +$2.37 realized. Holding into the Jul 22 earnings catalyst is the plan; a TSLA close < $400 on any day exits the rest. Cadence 30→60: day over, no overnight trigger to watch that the resting stop doesn't already cover.

Day 1 result: account $505.61 (+1.1% since inception, day one). Realized +$2.37 (tax reserve $0.71 set aside → spendable cash $463.53 of $464.24); unrealized +$3.24 on the remaining 3 TSLL. For scale: SPY +1.0% today, QQQ +1.7% — the account edged the market on its first day with only ~15% deployed, because the one position was the right one (TSLA +6.1%).

Watching:

• TSLL rest-of-position — leg (b): sell 3 at $14.00 (TSLA ~$425), exit on TSLA close < $400. No new-entry plans for TSLA after a +6% day; chasing strength is not the setup.
• FOMC June minutes Wednesday 7/8 — the week's one macro event; Warsh's first minutes, hawk/dove split is the tell. A hawkish read could crack the risk-on tape that's carrying this position — the day to be attentive, not the day to add.
• IREN $43.77 (+12.7% today, second straight big up day) — the bounce I passed on at $42.81 kept going. No regret-chasing: still a countertrend rally inside a -43% five-week downtrend until it builds a base above ~$40 for more than two days. Shadow review lands 7/13; let the data speak.
• Slots: 3 of 4 free, ~$423 buying power (before $0.71 reserve). Earnings warm-up Wed–Fri (LEVI/PEP/DAL) per the weekly plan; DAL Friday is the only one with a sketched play, and the default there is no trade.

Notes: Clean first day: the pre-written trigger fired, the sizing/stop mechanics worked (whole-share TSLL specifically so a stop could rest), and the 10:17 mechanical playbook turned the sell-or-hold question into execution instead of deliberation. The one process cost was ~2% of entry paid for confirmation — acceptable, and it was pre-reasoned, not slippage. Nothing off-plan today.

Account value: $502.78 (cash $464.24, positions $38.54) · Since inception: +0.6% (EOD snapshot 14:47 CT, near close)

Positions: TSLL 3 @ $12.71 (breakeven stop $12.71 GTC resting; leg-b: sell 3 at $14.00 ≈ TSLA $425, or exit on TSLA close < $400 — riding to Jul 22 earnings)

Actions (open, 8:32 CT): Recon clean, position reconciles. TSLL $13.85 (+9.0%, +$3.42 unrealized), breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting broker-side. No new trade: TSLA $418.53 (-0.3%) holds mid target zone but is post-+6%-day — chasing strength isn't the setup; QQQ soft (-1.0%, SpaceX-valuation/oil overhang); IREN $42.40 (-3.4%), the countertrend bounce is cooling as expected (shadow review 7/13). Cash stays a position ahead of Wed FOMC minutes. Slots 3/4 free.

Intraday:

• 8:32 CT — cadence 60→30: TSLL $13.85 is ~1% under the $14.00 leg-b target and I don't want to miss the touch between hourly sessions; free-ride floor is +$2.37 so no downside urgency, just target-capture watch.
• 9:02 CT — the $14.00 touch didn't come; the tape cooled instead. TSLL $13.63 (-2.3% on day), remaining 3 shares still +7.2% (+$2.76 unrealized). TSLA $414.93 (-1.2%) slipped to the bottom edge of the $415–425 zone but sits far above the $400 close-exit; QQQ -1.6% (broad risk-off, no macro trigger — FOMC minutes are tomorrow); IREN $40.95 (-6.7%), bounce still fading (validates the pass). Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting (state confirmed). No action — hold the free ride. Cadence 30→60: leg-b is now ~2.7% away and momentum has cooled, so the target-capture reason for escalating has resolved; the resting stop covers the downside between hourly checks.
• 10:02 CT — risk-off deepened. TSLA $408.18 (-2.8% on day) has dropped out the bottom of the $415–425 target zone; QQQ -2.2% (broad tech selling into tomorrow's FOMC minutes, no TSLA-specific news). TSLL $13.19 (-5.5% on day), remaining 3 shares now +3.8% (+$1.44 unrealized). Still no exit trigger: TSLA sits $8 above the $400 close-exit and well above the $380 thesis-break; the breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC is verified resting broker-side (~3.6% below current) so the floor holds at +$2.37 realized. Leg-b ($14.00) is now ~6% away — the swing thesis is intact but the risk-on tape carrying it is weakening, and tomorrow's minutes are the tell. No action; hold. Cadence stays 60 — no trigger is imminent and the resting stop covers the gap between checks.
• 11:02 CT — steady drift, no new development. TSLA $407.52 (-2.9% on day), holding $7.50 above the $400 close-exit and far above the $380 thesis-break; QQQ -1.8% (risk-off persists, no TSLA news). TSLL $13.14 (-5.8% on day), remaining 3 shares +3.4% (+$1.29 unrealized). Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting broker-side, so the floor holds at +$2.37 realized. Leg-b ($14.00) ~6.5% away. No action; hold. Cadence stays 60 — the resting stop covers the gap and tomorrow's FOMC minutes are the next real tell.
• 12:02 CT — flat vs 11:02. TSLA $408.77 (-2.6%), TSLL $13.22 (-5.2%), remaining 3 shares +4.0% (+$1.53 unrealized); QQQ -1.4%. Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting broker-side. No trigger, no action; cadence stays 60.
• 13:02 CT — still flat. TSLA $408.23 (-2.7%), TSLL $13.19 (-5.5%), remaining 3 shares +3.8% (+$1.44 unrealized); QQQ -1.3%. Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting broker-side. No trigger, no action; cadence stays 60 — resting stop covers the gap, tomorrow's FOMC minutes are the next real tell.
• 14:02 CT — selloff accelerated into the afternoon. TSLA $403.62 (-3.85% on day) has fallen to within $3.62 of the $400 close-exit; QQQ -1.92% (broad tech risk-off deepened, still no TSLA-specific catalyst — FOMC minutes tomorrow). TSLL $12.88, remaining 3 shares now only +1.3% (+$0.51 unrealized) — the free ride has compressed hard, though the floor is unchanged at +$2.37 realized. Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting broker-side (state confirmed, all 3 shares held-for-sells). No trigger yet (TSLA above $400, far above the $380 thesis-break). Cadence 60→15: the close-exit is a *close-based* rule and TSLA is grinding toward $400 an hour before the bell — I need a session near 15:00 to judge the close and execute the exit if TSLA breaches, which the hourly cadence would skip. No action now; hold and watch the close.
• 14:17 CT — grind toward $400 continues. TSLA $402.47 (-4.12% on day), now $2.47 above the $400 close-exit; QQQ -2.15%, SPY -0.62% (broad tech risk-off, still no TSLA-specific catalyst). TSLL $12.806, remaining 3 shares +0.76% (+$0.29 unrealized) — free-ride floor unchanged at +$2.37 realized. Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting broker-side (state confirmed, all 3 held-for-sells). No trigger (the $400 rule is close-based, not intraday), no action; hold. Cadence stays 15 to judge the close.
• 14:32 CT — holding just above the line, 28 min to the bell. TSLA $402.94 (-4.0% on day), $2.94 above the $400 close-exit; QQQ -2.0%, SPY -0.58%. TSLL $12.835, remaining 3 shares +1.0% (+$0.38 unrealized) — free-ride floor unchanged at +$2.37 realized. Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting broker-side (state confirmed, all 3 held-for-sells). No trigger, no action; hold. Cadence stays 15 so the ~14:47 session is the close-judgment session — if TSLA is below $400 in the final minutes I sell the rest at market; if it holds above, it carries to Jul 22 earnings. Deferring the EOD snapshot to that close session so it reflects the actual outcome.
• 14:47 CT (close-judgment / EOD session) — TSLA held the line into the bell: $403.08 (-3.98%), $3.08 above the $400 close-exit. The rule is close-based and TSLA is comfortably above $400 in the final minutes, so the position carries to Jul 22 earnings — no exit fired. TSLL $12.845, remaining 3 shares +1.06% (+$0.41 unrealized); free-ride floor unchanged at +$2.37 realized. Broad tape closed risk-off (QQQ -2.10% $707.66, SPY -0.59% $746.87) but TSLA held better than the index into the close — no TSLA-specific catalyst, FOMC minutes tomorrow are the next macro tell. Breakeven stop 3 @ $12.71 GTC verified resting broker-side (state confirmed, all 3 held-for-sells). Contingency: if TSLA's *official* settled close prints below $400, tomorrow's first session exits the rest at the open — I can't act after the bell today and the close-based rule needs the settled print. Cadence 15→60: the close-judgment reason is resolved; the resting stop covers the overnight gap, so hourly is right from here (cadence also auto-resets to 60 tomorrow). EOD snapshot recorded above.

Watching:

• TSLL leg-b — sell 3 at $14.00 (TSLA ~$425); exit on TSLA close < $400.
• FOMC June minutes Wed 7/8 — the week's macro tell (Warsh's first, hawk/dove split). A hawkish read could crack the risk-on tape carrying the position.
• IREN $42.40 — bounce fading into its downtrend; base above ~$40 for multiple days before it's interesting. Shadow review 7/13.

First weekly research session. Account: $500.00 cash, no positions, no trades yet — Monday 2026-07-06 is the first live trading day (regular session; the holiday was observed Friday).

Macro map (week of Jul 6–10)

The regime, from live sources this weekend: stagflation-tinted chop. June nonfarm payrolls (released Thu 7/2) came in at +57k vs ~115k expected, with April+May revised down a combined 74k; unemployment "fell" to 4.2% only because participation dropped to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021. Meanwhile CPI is running 4.2% YoY (May) — hottest since April 2023 — driven partly by the energy spike from Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, though Brent has now retreated to the low $70s as that eases. The Fed held in June under new chair Kevin Warsh with the committee publicly split (~9 members leaning 1–2 hikes this year, ~9 leaning hold/cut). The soft jobs print pulled hike expectations back.

This week's calendar is light — the one macro event is FOMC June-meeting minutes, Wednesday 7/8 (Warsh's first minutes; hawk/dove balance is THE tell). No CPI this week (June CPI lands mid-July). With thin data, technicals, oil, and yields drive tape. SPY closed 744.78 Thursday, ~1.5% off its early-June high; QQQ 712.60, choppier.

Notable earnings (Q2 season warm-up): LEVI Wed pm · PEP Thu am · DAL Fri am (EPS est $1.47). Big-bank earnings and June CPI are NEXT week — this week is the calm before.

Stable review

• TSLA ($393.45): The week's big story. Rallied $381→$425 into Q2 deliveries, then dropped 7.5% Thursday (worst day in ~a year) DESPITE a blowout: 480,126 deliveries vs ~397k consensus, +25% YoY, best Q2 ever; energy storage 13.5 GWh (beat). Third straight sell-the-news on a delivery report. Bear arguments being made: run-up already priced it, high gas prices flattered the number, DOGE-tailwind ending. Next hard catalyst: Q2 earnings July 22. Technicals: closed below $400; support $389 (Thu low) then $380 (late-June base) then $368–373 (June lows); resistance $405, then $425–432. Posture: broken short-term, but fundamentals just got BETTER — this is a dip-reversal candidate, not a falling knife to grab Monday at the open.
• TSLL ($12.30): tracked 2x as designed (-16% Thursday). Vehicle, not thesis — only for short holding periods when the TSLA swing sets up.
• IREN — ADDED to stable this week. Reasoning: the strongest momentum theme in the market right now is bitcoin-miners-turned-AI-infrastructure, and it is explicitly decoupled from crypto (BTC is ~$58k, down >50% from its Oct 2025 high, Fear&Greed at 11 — yet CIFR +313% and IREN +254% over six months). IREN specifically: $1.6B Dell deal for Blackwell AI systems supporting its $3.4B Microsoft cloud contract; last $40.12. This satisfies the depth-in-few-names rule: one theme name, learned properly, beats chasing a different AI ticker every day. Not a buy order — a commitment to track it every session.

Candidate setups (pre-researched, NOT pre-committed — confirm live before acting)

1. TSLA post-deliveries dip-reversal (tsla-swing / dip-reversal). Thesis: record deliveries + storage beat = fundamentals improved while price dropped 7.5%; mean-reversion into the Jul 22 earnings catalyst. Entry: NOT at Monday's open blind — require stabilization (holding above ~$389 Thu low, ideally a reclaim of $395–400) Monday/Tuesday. Size 20–30% (~$100–150). Target $415–425 pre-earnings. Stop: broker-side at -8% from entry, and thesis-broken if $380 fails on a close. Max loss ≈ $12 on a $150 position. TSLL half-size is the leveraged alternative — only if entry timing is tight, not for a multi-week hold.

2. IREN momentum continuation (breakout). Thesis: AI-datacenter conversion re-rating with contracted revenue (Dell/Microsoft), sector making highs against a crypto bear — the move is idiosyncratic, not BTC beta. Entry: pullback toward $37–38, or continuation through recent highs on volume. Size 20–25% (~$100–125). Stop -10% broker-side. Risk: extended after a 6-month +254% run; if the AI-infra tape cracks (watch NBIS, CIFR, AAOI as the peer group), stand down.

3. DAL earnings reaction Friday (earnings-momentum). NOT holding through the print with this account. Fuel relief (Brent low-$70s) vs. soft consumer (leisure/hospitality payrolls -61k in June) makes the print genuinely two-sided. Plan: watch the 7/10 am report; only act on a decisive post-earnings direction with room, sized ≤20%. Doing nothing is the likely outcome.

4. Theme watch, no trade yet: refiners caught a bid (DK +12% Thursday) on crack spreads — but Brent retreating cuts both ways; energy names are a fast tape I don't have edge in this week. Passing.

Week behind

No trades to review — the account went live Thursday night and Friday was a holiday. Process note: infrastructure (briefing, watchdog, dashboard, scans) all ran clean through the holiday.

Monday plan

Regular first-session procedure. Priorities: (1) TSLA/TSLL open behavior vs the $389 level — patience beats heroics on day one; (2) IREN peer-group tape; (3) no forced trades — with FOMC minutes Wednesday and real catalysts next week, cash is a position. The first trade of this account's life should be an A-setup, not an itch.

Market closed all day (Independence Day observed — July 4 falls on Saturday). No positions, no orders, $500.00 cash. No action. First live trading session: Monday 2026-07-06.

Account value: $100.00 (cash $100.00, positions $0) · Since inception: 0%

Positions: none

Actions: none — account connected and reconned after market close (9 PM CT). Market closed 2026-07-03 (Independence Day observed). First live session: Monday 2026-07-06.

Watching: to be built Monday from earnings calendar + weekend news. Holiday-shortened week just ended; Q2 earnings season starts mid-July — catalyst-rich window ahead.

Notes: Infrastructure day: MCP connected (options level 2 confirmed, cash account), journal + LaunchAgent created (hourly during market hours, self-escalating to 30/15 min). Mandate locked with Harold: aggressive survival-first, concentrated positions, defined-risk options only.

Late update (same evening): Harold added $400 → contributed capital now $500.00 (shows as pending deposit, already in buying power). Sizing rules re-tiered to percentages (max 4 positions, stocks 20-40% each, options ≤2 positions / ≤15% each / ≤25% combined), drawdown brake at $250 (50% of contributed).

Goal set (same evening): $100,000 by July 2029, beating market returns along the way. Full autonomy — reasoning logged here, reviewed per-trade and weekly.

Goal revised (final, later that night): dollar target dropped. Mission: maximize money as fast as possible WITHOUT blowing up the account; market returns are the floor. Also added: 30% of each year's net realized gains held as a tax reserve (not spendable), shown on the dashboard.